A technology research firm based in London is forecasting a grim future for mobile WiMax, saying the technology likely will yield to third-generation long-term evolution because of limited growth potential.

 

According to Frost & Sullivan (News - Alert) Program Manager Luke Thomas, recent events may thwart the expansion of mobile WiMax – a wireless broadband access alternative to cable and digital subscriber lines that some others say will form the backbone of the Internet’s future.

 

“For example, Sprint (News - Alert)-Nextel recently announced a delay to the commercial roll-out of its Mobile WiMAX service, Xohm (News - Alert),” Thomas said, “and has now stated that the first commercial service of Xohm will be in Baltimore in September 2008, followed by Washington, D.C., and Chicago by the fourth quarter of 2008 – provided the new WiMAX venture ‘ClearWire’ deal closes by (then).”

 

According to Thomas, operators next year will start to see that WiMax isn’t a feasible mobile broadband access option.

 

“In terms of indoor wireless broadband, Wi-Fi fits well in this space and with the emergence of 802.11n, which includes MIMO, throughputs would be far better than what Mobile WiMAX (News - Alert) can deliver,” Thomas said. “With respect to outdoor mobile broadband environments, users would expect Mobile WiMAX to seamlessly hand off to cellular networks in the absence of WiMAX reception. In reality this is not possible as mobile WiMAX is not backward compatible with existing cellular technologies.”

 

According to Frost & Sullivan, operators who look at mobile WiMAX must consider that 97 percent of laptops are shipped with Wi-Fi technology. The firm says that 3G LTE (News - Alert) is expected to be a fully ratified standard by the end of this year or early next year, with deployments slated to occur in late 2009 or first months of 2010 offering peak data rates of up to 170Mbps.

 

“The number of dual-mode Wi-Fi/cellular mobile phones is also on the rise, with newer models emerging at lower costs, with better battery life,” officials from the firm say.

 

It isn’t clear whether members of the WiMax community have done something that those supporting the 3G LTE community appear to have done: reach an agreement on the intellectual property rights they possess for mobile WiMAX.

 

“Hence, prominent members of the WiMAX Forum have formed the Open Patent Alliance to address this very issue,” firm officials say.

 

Recently, at a WiMAX Forum workshop in Dubai, participants reportedly accepted that mobile WiMAX is not optimized to handle data and voice applications at the same time as well as HSPA or 3G LTE. The firm concludes that it isn’t clear whether the first devices for mobile WiMAX – ultramobile PCs or tablet devices – will meet with any degree of consumer receptiveness. 

 

“While the Nokia N810 tablet will retail at $440 for Xohm users later this year, it is still ambiguous if consumers will want one mobile device for voice, based on cellular technology and another for ‘personal broadband’ based on Mobile WiMAX,” Thomas said. “This is especially relevant, considering that HSPA coupled with Wi-Fi can do both in a single mobile device.”